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2014–15 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2014–15 South Pacific cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. The season officially ran from November 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) also monitored the basin and issued unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).
==Seasonal forecasts==
Ahead of the cyclone season, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2014.〔 The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Nino conditions occurring during the season.〔 The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2014–15 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.〔 At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.〔 In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, RSMC Nadi and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.〔〔
The BoM issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.〔 They predicted that the region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 55% chance of it being above average.〔 The Western region was predicted to have 39% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 55% chance of being above average.〔 Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between six and ten tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 8.5 cyclones.〔 At least two of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while 1-2 might intensify into a category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclones.〔 They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located near to and to the east of the International Dateline.〔 This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region.〔 An updated Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook was issued during February 2015, which suggested that near normal activity was still possible.〔 The outlook took into account Tropical Cyclones Niko and Ola as well as the weak El Nino conditions, that were predicted to persist over the region.〔 As a result, the update predicted that an additional six to eight named tropical cyclones would develop over the basin, which would bring the overall total to between eight and ten tropical cyclones.〔 The update also predicted that at least four tropical cyclones would intensify into category three severe tropical cyclones, of which three could intensify and become either a category four or five severe tropical cyclone.〔
Both the Island Climate Update and the FMS tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory.〔〔 As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located near to and to the east of the International Dateline, normal or slightly above normal activity was expected for areas near the dateline.〔〔 The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that Vanuatu and New Caledonia had a reduced chance of being affected by multiple tropical cyclones.〔 The Northern Cook Islands, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna, the Solomon Islands, Northern New Zealand and French Polynesia's Austral and Society Islands were all predicted to have a normal chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone or ex tropical cyclone.〔 They also predicted that Niue, Samoa, Tokelau, Tuvalu and the Southern Cook Islands had an elevated chance while French Polynesia's Tuamotu Archipelago and Marquesas Islands, Kiribati and the Pitcairn Islands, had an unlikely chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 The FMS's outlook predicted that Wallis and Futuna, Tuvalu, Samoa, Niue, Tonga, Vanuatu, the Southern Cook Islands and the Solomon Islands had a high chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 Fiji, French Polynesia, New Caledonia and the Northern Cook Islands and had a moderate chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone while Kiribati had a low chance.〔 Because of its proximity to the warm pool and genesis area, the FMS noted that Tokelau had a low to moderate risk of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 RSMC Nadi also predicted that there was an increased risk of severe tropical cyclones, affecting the region this year when compared to the previous season. There was a high chance of Tuvalu, Samoa, Niue, Tonga, the Southern Cook Islands, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands being affected by a severe tropical cyclone.〔 The chances of Fiji, New Caledonia, the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia being affected by a severe tropical cyclone were moderate while Kiribati, Tokelau and Wallis and Futuna had a low risk.〔 The updated Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook reported that there was still a chance that two or more systems could interact with New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga.〔 However, it was noted that activity might be slightly reduced to the north of Vanuatu and that an elevated amount of activity might occur in the Coral Sea to the east of Queensland.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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